2007 Global Energy Survey

Political Pressures

A slow boil

More than nine in ten executives agree that the global political situation will remain tense; 50 percent of respondents suggest that there will be a slight increase in political risks over the next three to five years. Eighty percent of resp respondents believe that political and economic
mechanisms will be finalized in the upcoming period. Approximately six in ten respondents expressed concern that a nuclear accident or attack could
severely endanger the prospects of a nuclear renaissance globally in the medium term. Latin America, terrorism and some aggressive national oil companies (NOCs) register as geopolitical risks among a smaller group of survey respondents. Roughly three in 10 respondents identified Latin America, specifically Venezuela, as a potential area for concern. Meanwhile, around 30 percent of respondents (up from 20 percent last
year) identified terrorist attacks on energy installations or nuclear facilities as potential dangers to security of supply.ondents identified the Middle East, Russia and the nuclear stand-off with Iran as the top three security  issues over the medium term. Although 70 percent of respondents do not expect to see any  resolution to the Iraq conflict, the Israel- Palestine conflict or the nuclear stand-off with Iran in the short term, respondents also do not expect to see any immediate deterioration in the crisis zones. A new potential geopolitical hot zone, Saudi Arabia, appears on the radars of 20 percent of respondents this year. Among 75 percent of the survey’s European-based respondents, Russian supply worries are viewed as having a potentially significant impact on the supply of natural gas to the EU over the next three to five years. These concerns, however, are not expected to increase over the medium term, and almost all  respondents believe that political and economic mechanisms will be finalized in the upcoming period. Approximately six in ten respondents expressed concern that a nuclear accident or attack could severely endanger the prospects of a nuclear renaissance globally in the medium term. Latin America, terrorism and some aggressive national oil companies (NOCs) register as geopolitical risks among a smaller group of survey respondents. Roughly three in 10 respondents identified Latin America, specifically Venezuela, as a potential area for concern. Meanwhile, around 30 percent of respondents (up from 20 percent last year) identified terrorist attacks on energy installations or nuclear facilities as potential dangers to security of supply. previous | next