Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050
Back in September 2004 when I accepted the invitation to Chair this study I expected this would be a challenging and exciting project. I have not been disappointed.
During the three years of this study I have been exposed to a wide range of thoughts and opinions, many of which have been quite different from my own. I have been challenged in so many different ways to review, justify or change my perceptions and opinions about the role energy plays in our global society. I have come to better understand the different peoples of our world; their aspirations, their fears, their strengths, their vulnerabilities and most of all their common vision and drive to achieve excellence in terms of Accessibility, Availability and Acceptability of energy systems.
This study does not claim to have found "The Ideal Energy Policy." It certainly does not claim to be the last word on the topic of Global Energy Policy Scenarios. To do so would be presumptuous in the extreme. To the contrary, one of the key lessons from this study is that the policy imperatives are quite different from one region to another. An understanding and, more significantly, empathy for why this is so will greatly enhance the quality and the effectiveness of policy formulation and implementation.
However, it does claim to be a reflection of the thoughts and opinions of more than 400 people working at policy decision-making level around the world, drawn from industry, government, academic and non-governmental organisations. This is not a theoretical study and neither is it people in one region writing about what might happen in another region. It is the product of many workshops held in various locations during which leaders in that region discussed and debated the policy issues facing their region within the context of particular global scenarios and circumstances.
These workshops initiated, and this report aims to perpetuate, a vigorous and robust discussion about energy policy and its impact on the achievement and sustainability of the goals of Accessibility, Availability and Acceptability of energy systems. It is my hope that as you read this report you will be challenged, as I have been, and that you will be encouraged to take the debate further.
But more than that, I hope that you will recognise that there is much still to be done, and much that each of us can do, to improve our progress towards the 3 A goals. Dialogue and the debate are very important but it is even more important to convert this into meaningful action. This report is entitled "Deciding the Future" because the study group believes it is long past the time when decisions need to be made about the world's sustainable energy future. This report points the way for policymakers to make important decisions now which can deliver desirable progress on the 3 A's in the period from 2030-2050. This report shows that irrespective of whether we are in the public or private sector, there are issues within our own range of decision capability that we can act on immediately. I hope that we each find the courage to make those decisions, wisely and timely. In doing so, we will be "Deciding the Future."
Two contracts were let to help complete the tasks involved in this study. Ernst and Young (London) provided services to help plan and manage the diverse parts of the project and Enerdata (Grenoble) provided quantitative baseline data from their mathematical simulation model.
Many others have contributed to this study; too many to mention all by name. The Regional and Specialist Study Co-ordinators and the Members of the Study Group have been tireless in their efforts. Rogerio Manso for enthusiastically launching the work in the Latin American region; Dr Pietro Erber, Dr Latsoucabe Fall, Ian Hayhow for refining the work of their regions; Dr Angela Wilkinson and Wim Thomas for specialist advice and guidance, especially on scenarios; Dr Emad El-Sharkawi, Yasuo Hosoya, Oskar Sigvaldason, Ed Weeda; Harald Haegermark, Jean-Eudes Moncomble and Dr Hardiv Situmeang for diligently reading and commenting on draft after draft; Don Elder, Nigel Lucas and Dr Nebojsa Nakicenovic for taking the time to independently review the draft report and provide valuable comments; J.K. Mehta of WEC India and Marion Friepess who kept diligent record of thousands of documents and exchanges.
My personal appreciation goes to Jean-Marie Bourdaire and the late Jan Murray for their passion and dedication in helping me launch this study; Michael Cupit, Chris Mole and Samantha Palfrey of Ernst and Young for keeping the entire project on track; Bertrand Chateau of Enerdata for stimulating discussions of the relevant parameters; François Ailleret and Dr Rob Whitney for their wisdom, advice and encouragement and finally to Dr Robert Schock of WEC, colleague and friend, who has walked much of this road with me, sharing the breakthroughs and setbacks and never flinching from the task that lay ahead.
Brian A Statham
Chairman: WEC Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050 Study
Chairman: South African National Energy Association