Publications

Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050

3.3. Scenario 3:  Lion (High Government Engagement - High Cooperation and Integration)

The Lion is chosen for its sociability. Adults transfer experience and expertise to the young. Gathering food through hunting is a very cooperative effort with careful planning, clear identification of the goal, and executed in a controlled, disciplined manner. All members of a pride share in the results. This scenario might be thought of in terms of energy globalism or global coherence.

This scenario has significant government engagement and significant international or regional cooperation/integration. Governments actively share their experience and expertise, primarily in achieving basic human rights and alleviating poverty. In some cases, this strengthens regional integration initiatives. Countries cooperate on key energy issues of sustainable development. The global concerns of greenhouse gas emissions and energy poverty are the subjects of intense negotiations and strong international agreements and programmes. Yet measures to mitigate concerns may often conflict with each other (e.g., greenhouse gas emission mitigation may raise prices and thus affect access for the poor).
Reducing energy poverty and introducing efficient and effective technology boosts energy use in developing countries. This puts pressure on energy use in the developed world. This may be a short-term effect if the reduction in energy poverty enhances global productivity. The stimulus for regional integration or bilateral cooperation enhances prospects for the poor. The reduction of energy poverty comes with increased demand, putting pressure on energy supplies and infrastructures.

There is a stimulus to develop technologies appropriate to the needs of developing markets and time-to-market is shortened, although still significant. Funding such development work and funding the implementation of successful technologies in developing countries needs to be encouraged through proactive, cooperative energy policies, bilateral and regional inter-government agreements, and specific fiscal incentives. The technology focus helps to mitigate some energy constraints. This is a time of innovation and pushing back technological boundaries because government is funding marginal ventures.

International donor agencies and development banks play a big role. Aid is linked to environmental goals. Intellectual property is more effectively protected, deployed, and transferred.

Better control of energy resources improves local, regional, and global prospects. Greenhouse gas emissions remain under check with performance targets implicitly or explicitly collectively agreed on and respected. Managing environmental impacts, and especially emissions, has a significant cost that has a negative impact on GDP, thereby making it harder to reduce energy poverty.

Thanks to the avoidance of energy shocks and stimulation of developing country economies, GDP growth may be dynamic. However, benefits are offset by the cost of greenhouse gas emissions mitigation.

This scenario leads to burden sharing between the haves and have-nots at a national and an international level.