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Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050

1.3 Process

The methodology adopted in this report comprises group analysis with consistency checks using mathematical simulations. That means that, in essence, this is a modified Delphi study. It is also "normative" because it defines desirable characteristics of the future related to the WEC 3 A's (see Section 2 for more detail).

Regional groups, in a series of several workshops, developed descriptions of how the world would look in terms of the 3 A's, including relative changes in quantitative estimates of the chosen indicators. Any Delphi study may be faulted in having a built-in tendency to limit itself to conventional wisdom and prevailing prejudices. Nevertheless, the significant strength of this study is that it is a "bottom-up" effort and thus represents "on the ground" thinking about the future and addresses important areas of uncertainty.

Each region developed its descriptions of the energy landscape using the key indicators, starting in 2005 and in 15-year intervals (2020, 2035, and 2050). Against this physical landscape (see Section 3), the regional groups then considered how these indicators could be improved so as to better achieve the 3 A's.

Between July 2005 and April 2007, over 20 workshops were held in five WEC regions involving some 400 individuals representing the energy industry (producers, suppliers, users, and financiers), government ministries, academia, non-governmental organisations, and trade groups. Each region prepared a report containing results for its regions. These reports are summarised in this synthesis and are available online at http://www.worldenergy.org.

In addition to the regional groups, seven "specialist groups" supported the regional workshops. These specialist groups developed reports that provided:

The latest information on specific areas of importance pertaining to the overall study objectives of the regional working groups.
Consistency in the regional reports with established norms of the specialist communities and feedback to the regional groups.

These specialist areas (their reports are available online - see Appendix A) are:

Electricity generation
Electricity end-use
Stationary end-use
Transport
Energy-price drivers
Investment and finance
Climate change

The perspectives of these groups are summarised in Appendix B.