Publications

Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050

Next Steps

"Nous sommes responsables non seulement de ce que nous faisons, mais aussi de ce que nous ne faisons pas."
(We are not only responsible for what we do, but also for what we do not do.) Moliére (Jean Baptiste Poquelin)

The scenarios described in this study consider ways in which the global community might react to different sets of circumstances. With two primary dimensions - high or low engagement of government and high or low cooperation and integration between the public and private sectors of nations and between regions - four sets of circumstances arise. These circumstances are not mutually exclusive and each may include characteristics of the others, but they do define general areas of policy actions. The study has considered the impact that policy options will have on achieving the Accessibility, Availability, and Acceptability goals from 2005 to 2050.
The impact of the postulated scenarios differs from region to region and clearly illustrates the fallacy of a "one size fits all" approach to energy policy. Each region grapples with a unique set of energy issues. While there are things in common, there is much that is unique to a region(s). It is important to accept that energy policy will be different from region to region and even between nations, especially within some of the more complex regions. There will also be inter-regional effects such as the way conflicts in the Middle East affect energy prices around the world.
The study, as is typical for scenarios studies, raised many issues for which there are no easy answers. While these issues are either in total or part beyond the scope of this study, they point the way to further study.

• All four scenarios point to a doubling of TPER over the period to 2050. 
  • It is not clear where this additional energy will come from. Individual countries and large cities must address not only their requirements but also the distribution and cost of energy services.
  • Decisions will have to be made about whether specific energy systems are based on public preference or on economics, or some combination. It is not clear which course markets will take and policy actions are likely critical to determine the answer.
• Energy systems will be under stress in all four scenarios.  
  • This stress will force both governments and markets to make choices.
  • National oil companies may replace international oil corporations, changing the dynamic. 
  • Significant investments in oil shale and sands, carbon capture and storage, biofuels, nuclear power, and very efficient transport will clearly depend on government decisions. 
  • There may be more competition between energy producers and end-users than between energy sources.
  • Volatility and liquidity of the markets will almost certainly be impacted by the overall stress on the energy system.
  • Oil price shocks and are likely to accelerate a transition away from oil and gas with consequent effects (both
  • Energy policy will be different from region to region and even between nations, especially within more complex regions.
    positive and negative) on the achievement of the 3 A's.
  • It is not clear that plant and equipment manufacturing capability will exist to meet the energy supply and demand needs of the future. The same may be said about the human capability to design, construct and operate the systems as well as the infrastructure capacity to transmit and deliver the energy. Clean water affects the means to produce energy and as a product of energy investment. New World Bank country procurement standards will hopefully be more effective at achieving sustainable energy systems than conventional global standards.
  • Human capacity to operate energy systems may not be in the most desirable locations and may necessitate extensive migration within and between regions. This migration could place further stress on cities. 
  • Higher fossil energy prices may open the door for introduction of cleaner alternatives or they could force economically marginal countries and peoples to use dirtier ones.
• The scenarios with high cooperation indicate enhanced performance relative to the achievement of the 3 A goals.
  • It is not clear what form global energy markets (trade agreements), regional or worldwide will take. Yet they are likely to drive political alliances of the future.
  • It is by no means clear whether the emerging energy "giants" as producers or as consumers of energy (China, India, Brazil and Russia will form alliances or whether they will focus on competing with each other. More public-private partnerships in energy development will clearly play an important role in future alliances.
• Most people argue that more energy R&D is needed, but it is not clear what level is necessary to provide insurance for a sustainable energy future.
• The performance on achieving "Acceptability" is an issue under all scenarios.
  • Carbon markets, of whatever design, may lead to a stable value for carbon with incentives lower emissions in harmony with growth, or someone could just make a lot of money. It is not clear if carbon taxes a better bet?

The Study Group recommends these issues to the leadership and Member Committees of WEC. The input of delegates to the World Energy Congress and other energy institutions is critical on how to address and promote profitable policy actions.