Publications

Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050

5.1. Scenario 1: Leopard

5.1.1. Africa (Figure 5-1)

The combination of low government involvement and low cooperation restricts regional integration projects, transfer of technologies and know-how, access to foreign funds, and access to alternative energy sources, making improvement in Accessibility and Availability problematic. Renewable energy is neither competitive nor incentivised and CO2 emissions continue to rise. Poverty worsens, exacerbated by a lack of appropriate social and energy policies. Demand for non-commercial fuel sources increases.

5.1.2. Asia (Figure 5-2)

Low but steady economic growth facilitates the gradual extension of the main electricity grid, improving Accessibility slowly and meeting energy demand and energy security expectations. Oil and gas reserves may last longer due to decelerating demand growth. Due to low government engagement and low cooperation and integration, nuclear power generation and renewable energy cannot be developed, leading to lower energy Availability in the long-term. Energy security is first priority with little attention given to climate change and Acceptability does not improve.

5.1.3. Europe (Figure 5-3)

All 3 A's decline through the initial period. Low government engagement and low cooperation inhibit technology transfer and development of common policies. Availability is particularly affected as Russia tends to follow its own governmental agenda and Scandinavian markets become more insular in their approach. Plenty of opportunity exists for the development of "national champions" in the energy field. These companies prosper by following their own profit motives and have little regard for social investment. Access to markets becomes increasingly difficult for non-EU companies. Toward the end of the period, the private sector takes a stronger social role and there is some improvement in achieving the 3 A's. Disappointing as these implications are, they are not nearly as detrimental as those experienced in Africa and Latin America.

5.1.4. Latin America and the Caribbean (Figure 5-4)

Low cooperation and integration, coupled with governments unwilling to step in and take a direct role in the energy sector, has disastrous consequences. The Leopard scenario is the least favorable for the economy, the environment, and energy consumers. This scenario can lead to rationing, high prices, cartels, low economic growth, and low efficiency with negative environmental impacts. Accessibility, Availability, and Acceptability are all negatively affected, and in the long run the region collapses to a level approaching that of Africa.

5.1.5. North America (Figure 5-5)

Access remains steady with no improvement, reflecting the ongoing problem of access in Mexico and rural areas of the United States. Availability drops for a while because there is no clear accountability for the maintenance and development of infrastructure. Also, because there is low cooperation, the supply of primary energy is not as secure as it was in the past and this has a negative impact on availability. In the last period, the private sector steps in to take responsibility for infrastructure and to develop local sources of primary energy, hitherto unexploited. Due to these interventions, the situation recovers back to the 2005 level. Acceptability shows slow and slight improvement over the period, but this is not a policy priority under this scenario.