Publications

Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050

5.3. Scenario 3: Lion

5.3.1. Africa (Figure 5-11)

Governments are highly engaged and intervene actively pursuing the following policy objectives: security of energy supply, the eradication of energy poverty, and the mitigation of climate change, all with the help and engagement of the international community. There is strong improvement in achieving the Accessibility goal.

Energy security and supply are reinforced through intensive cooperation and integration with the other producer countries. International institutions play a major role in the financing of the energy infrastructure and projects, locally and regionally, and the private sector is heavily engaged. There is a stimulus to develop appropriate technologies for the needs of local and regional developing markets. All of these developments serve to improve Availability.

Primary energy mix is diversified with an increasing share of natural gas, renewable energies, and the introduction of massive biofuels in road transportation. Modern biomass is also extensively utilised by rural populations, improving both Accessibility and Acceptability.

5.3.2. Asia (Figure 5-12)

High economic growth leads to the deployment of main electricity supply options, such as nuclear, especially for China and India, and decentralised solutions based on renewables, especially modern biomass, in the medium-term, and other renewables in the long run. Accessibility is improving, but at considerable cost.

Regional cooperation encourages integrated projects that enhance Availability. Cooperation between industrialised and developing countries enhances investment from the developed to the developing, which further enhances Accessibility.

Oil and gas reserves grow as the result of new discoveries or the re-evaluation of reserves, based on the use of new technologies and energy investment, which leads to higher Availability.

First priority in this scenario is sustainable development. Governments' policies drive energy efficiency improvement that in turn curbs energy demand. International cooperation accelerates technological leapfrogging, resulting in new technologies being deployed more rapidly across the region.

All this leads to an improvement in Acceptability. On the other hand, economic growth to some extent offsets the effects of the shift to cleaner energy.

5.3.3. Europe (Figure 5-13)

Accessibility improves due to the intervention of governments opening markets in the spirit of high cooperation and interaction. This relaxation of constraints increases competition, which improves quality and reduces prices. The reduction in prices has a direct and very positive impact on affordability that is a key element of all 3 A's.

Consumer countries are quite willing to enter into longer-term discussions with supplier countries. The improvement in demand security is an incentive for suppliers and so, after initially declining, Availability improves to the benefit of all parties.

Partially because of this high Availability, the EU is able to reduce its dependence on coal by about 50% over the period through increased use of secure natural gas. This has a significant impact on Acceptability that improves during the first period.

The improved performance on Acceptability is sustained, driven by the proactive policies of government that are well received by business under a high cooperation and integration scenario.

5.3.4. Latin America and the Caribbean (Figure 5-14)

There is more access to financial, managerial, and technological input than in the Elephant scenario. This makes it possible to execute large-scale projects with long lead times for modernising infrastructure. Opportunities exist for complementary participation on the part of private enterprise.

Using up-to-date technologies by the government and a greater diversity of foreign trade, than in the Elephant scenario, reduces the importance of intermediate goods (steel, aluminum, pulp, etc.) in the composition of exports, contributing to a reduction in energy intensity. There is greater attention to protecting the environment as a result of domestic and overseas pressures.

5.3.5. North America (Figure 5-15)

North America is largely unaffected in the Lion scenario. This is surprising in that there is no implied improvement in Accessibility and Availability in Mexico, even though this is a high cooperation and integration scenario. This performance is in stark contrast to that of the Latin America and the Caribbean region where high cooperation and integration makes a very significant impact.

Under the Lion scenario, North America directs much of its effort toward improving Accessibility and Availability in other regions of the world. Performance within the region remains essentially static.

Cooperation, especially international, drives steady improvement in Acceptability.