Publications

Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050

5.4. Scenario 4: Giraffe

5.4.1. Africa (Figure 5-16)

Better performance of national economies occurs due to increased involvement of the private sector in the energy market. This drives up GDP growth throughout the periods, which in turn assists in decreasing population growth rate due to removal of both subsidies and illiteracy, increased job creation, and other factors. Innovations actively contribute to reduce energy costs and increase modern energy access. This assists in ensuring Accessibility to energy throughout the continent.

Availability improves strongly throughout the period. Market driven behavior leads to the transfer of technology and know-how and adoption of energy efficiency and energy conservation measures through the introduction of modern technologies and higher energy prices. There are opportunities for technology leapfrogging through accelerated development and deployment of energy and energy-based technologies.

There is an increasing use of fossil fuels (with substantial use of natural gas and coal) in the energy mix, as well as a large introduction of biofuels in transportation. Consequently, CO2 emissions remain high. However, this is partly compensated by active market mechanisms, such as Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). Energy intensity improves through access to technologies, and primary energy mix is enhanced through regional cooperation and integration.

Cooperation means pressures to comply with international Acceptability standards. More cooperation drives Availability very strongly. However, the low engagement of government means there is not the same drive to improve Accessibility and Acceptability, so they lag relative to the Lion scenario.

5.4.2. Asia (Figure 5-17)

Robust economic growth is maintained, augmenting the main electricity supply with options such as decentralised energy based on affordable renewables. Cooperation enhances investment from the developed to the developing countries, which in turn enhances Accessibility.

Oil and gas reserves grow as the result of new discoveries or the re-evaluation of reserves in already discovered fields, based on international cooperative use of new technologies and major investment in the energy sector. Regional integration of markets and energy trade, especially cross-border energy grids such as Trans-ASEAN Gas Pipeline and ASEAN Power Grid, further improves Availability.

The first priority in this scenario is high and stable economic development. This leads to increasing usage of cheaper fossil fuels, and in turn, makes local and regional pollution more serious and CO2 emissions increase. Consequently, Acceptability becomes worse. Attempts to mitigate this trend are not effective.

5.4.3. Europe (Figure 5-18)

The performance on all 3 A's remains fairly static through the period. Availability is at an acceptable level and business is prospering. There is little concern about Availability and no drive to improve it because the high cooperation makes it relatively easy to find alternative supplies.

Markets are flourishing across Europe and there is little need for government intervention. Market forces succeed in constraining the size of the multi-national corporations and there is a balance of market power (i.e., consumers are better off).

Because of the high levels of cooperation and integration, there is an effort to deal with Acceptability.

5.4.4. Latin America and the Caribbean (Figure 5-19)

Private sector companies provide greater access to financial, managerial, and technological resources than in the Lion scenario, although the selection of these resources may not be fully aligned to the needs of the economy of the country and its consumers. Therefore, achievement of Accessibility and Availability are not as good as in the Lion scenario.

There is lower investment in the protection of the environment and in the mitigation of environmental impacts than in the Lion scenario, which is partially mitigated by legislation.

There is broad participation of multinational companies, including associations with domestic companies, state or private sector owned, in production and in meeting the needs of the energy market. However, the risk of collusion and other forms of association is detrimental to competition and consumers. There is a need for an independent regulatory agency, in tune with the current business environment, to ensure attractiveness, competition, and good performance of sector entities.

5.4.5. North America (Figure 5-20)

The low level of government engagement means that there is little drive to improve the levels of Accessibility and Availability in this scenario. This is a problem for Mexico in particular since this is the worst affected country in the region. The high levels of cooperation introduce a lot of effort but this seems to be directed mainly towards countries outside the region where the goodwill has value in exchange for greater security of primary energy supply.

Acceptability shows some improvement, driven by high levels of international cooperation and integration and pressures brought to bear through the recognition that Acceptability is a global problem. Developed countries such as the United States and Canada are under particular pressure to lead the way in addressing this issue. There is however little improvement in Mexico as it still has Accessibility as its first priority.