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Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050

2.2.2 Asia

Asia rates itself in the mid-range as to its current state of achieving the 3 A's, demonstrating that much improvement is needed. Most Asian economies are dynamic and their impact on the global energy market is considerable, especially with rapidly growing energy demand in China, India, and the other Asian "tiger" economies. The Asian region is diverse geographically, economically, and socially and its energy issues and concerns vary greatly from sub-region to sub-region.

Accessibility
Asia is a diverse region and demonstrates clear variations as a consequence of different economic, social, and political patterns. The developed countries in the Middle East, Korea, Japan, New Zealand, and Australia also have good and nearly complete access. The remaining countries of Central and Southeast Asia, India, and China are on paths to provide complete access while some areas will not achieve high levels of access for many years to come.

Availability
Asian countries have attained high economic growth (4.0% on average over the past 20 years), significantly exceeding that of the world economy (2.7%), thanks to an active cycle of investment and export brought about by foreign direct investment, as well as significant technology imports and a plentiful, high quality workforce. Thus, Asian countries have driven the world economy. In line with this economic growth, the Asian region (including the Middle East) has an extremely large impact on both the world's energy supply and its demand. Asia's share in the world's primary energy consumption is currently around 40% while its primary energy production is approaching 45% of the total. GDP growth rate and other economic aspects, as well as energy demand and supply, will to a large extent depend on the strength of the economies of China and India. These two countries alone account for one-half the global increase in energy use between 2000 and 2005 .

Energy production in Asia (as defined in this study) is now about 200 EJ/year, with the highest share being coal (35%), followed by oil (30%), and gas (15%). The Gulf States have a 60% share of Asian production of oil and gas, while coal is 65%, 12%, and 12% from China, Australia, and India, respectively.

Developing Asian economies are fast becoming more motorised as their standards of living improve. This, in turn, will dramatically increase demand for oil as part of an expanded demand for transport fuel.

Acceptability
Increasing CO2 emissions is an issue in a delicate balance with Availability. For some developed regions, this might seem to be less serious, yet it is also quite difficult to address. There are high hopes for the diffusion of renewable energy sources with little environmental burden, such as hydropower, geothermal energy, new renewable energy, and in some countries, nuclear power. However, it is difficult for renewable energy to compete on par with fossil resources for base energy supplies due to higher costs. Renewable and other non-conventional sources of energy must be encouraged, but developing countries are not obsessed with them, Accessibility and Availability having priority.