Publications

Survey of Energy Resources 2007

Introduction

Solar energy is the most abundant permanent energy resource on earth and it is available for use in its direct (solar radiation) and indirect (wind, biomass, hydro, ocean etc.) forms. This commentary is limited to the direct use of solar radiation, the earth's prime energy resource.

The Sun emits energy at a rate of 3.8x1023 kW. Of this total, only a tiny fraction, approximately 1.8x1014 kW is intercepted by the earth, which is located about 150 million km from the sun. About 60% of this amount or 1.08x1014 reaches the surface of the earth. The rest is reflected back into space and absorbed by the atmosphere. Even if only 0.1% of this energy could be converted at an efficiency of only 10% it would be four times the world's total generating capacity of about 3 000 GW. Looking at it another way, the total annual solar radiation falling on the earth is more than 7 500 times the world's total annual primary energy consumption of 450 EJ.

The annual solar radiation reaching the earth's surface, approximately 3 400 000 EJ, is an order of magnitude greater than all the estimated (discovered and undiscovered) non-renewable energy resources, including fossil fuels and nuclear. However, 80% of the present worldwide energy use is based on fossil fuels. Several risks are associated with their use. Energy infrastructures - power plants, transmission lines and substations, and gas and oil pipelines - are all potentially vulnerable to adverse weather conditions or human acts. During the summer of 2003, one of the hottest and driest European summers in recent years, the operations of several power plants, oil and nuclear, were put at risk owing to a lack of water to cool the condensers. In other parts of the world, hurricanes and typhoons put the central fossil and nuclear power plants at risk. World demand for fossil fuels (starting with oil) is expected to exceed annual production, probably within the next two decades. Shortages of oil or gas can initiate international economic and political crises and conflicts. Moreover, burning fossil fuels releases emissions such as carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, aerosols, etc. which affect the local, regional and global environment.

Concerns regarding present energy systems are therefore growing because of the inherent risks connected with security of supply and potential international conflicts, and on account of the potential damage they can do to the natural environment in many and diverse ways. World public opinion, international and national institutions, and other organisations are increasingly aware of these risks, and they are pointing to an urgent need to fundamentally transform present energy systems onto a more sustainable basis.

A major contribution to this transformation can be expected to come from solar radiation, the prime energy resource. In several regions of the world the seeds of this possible transformation can be seen, not only at the technological level, but also at policy levels. For example, the European Union has recently announced policies and plans to obtain 20% of its energy needs through renewable energy by 2020. The German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) recently conducted an analysis of energy needs and resources in the future to the years 2050 and 2100 (Fig. 10-1) which points to a major contribution by solar energy to global energy needs in the long term. This scenario is based on the recognition that it is essential to move energy systems towards sustainability worldwide, both in order to protect the natural life-support systems on which humanity depends and to eradicate energy poverty in developing countries. Of course, this new solar era can be envisioned mainly because of the tremendous scientific and technological advances made during the last century and the ongoing research and development.

By 2100 oil, gas, coal and nuclear, as shown in Fig. 10-1 , will provide less than 15% of world energy consumption while solar thermal and photovoltaic will supply about 70%. Key elements of this long-term scenario are the energy efficiency and energy intensity policies that will make the contribution of renewable and solar energy a substantial factor. Those policies will deeply transform the building and construction, industry and transport sectors, increasing their reliance on renewable energy resources.

The transition towards this possible future has already started. In the following paragraphs an attempt will be made to show this by reviewing the state of the art regarding solar radiation resource assessment and the status and rate of growth of the major solar energy technologies, their technical and market maturity as well as institutional and governmental policies and approaches to promote their integration into the world's energy systems.