Global energy consumption to 2040

Posted on 31 October 2018

More than half of the world’s energy will come from petrol and natural gas in the year 2040, according to the 2018 BP Energy Outlook report.

The report focusing on future energy trends was discussed at the 3rd World Energy Talks, organised by the Turkish member committee of the World Energy Council and BP at Ankara Sheraton Hotel, with a strong focus on the global energy consumption by 2040.

Insightful discussions at the Sheraton Hotel took place with Alparslan Bayraktar, Deputy Minister of Energy and Natural Resources and President of World Energy Council Turkey, Abdullah Tancan, Deputy Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, Mustafa Yılmaz, EPDK President, Mick Stump, President of BP Turkey and William Zimmern, BP Group Head Economist.

According to the BP Energy Outlook 2018 report, presented by William Zimmern, BP Group Head Economist, electricity constitutes 70% of the energy demand increase. The report measures the penetration of electricity into the transportation sector by taking into consideration both the number of electric vehicles (EVs) and the utilisation rate of each vehicle. As claimed by the Evolving Transition Scenario, the EV’s share in the global automobile market will reach 15% by 2040.

Alparslan Bayraktar, President Of the Turkish member committee, commented: “An integrated, comprehensive approach is essential to the energy sector.”

Mr Bayraktar emphasised the importance of medium- and long-term planning, as well as of an integrated and comprehensive approach in the energy sector.

He said: “Essential elements of success in energy policies are continuity, definitiveness, and predictability in political aims. I would like to state that the vision we have created under the National Energy and Mineral Policy of the last term will continue as powerfully in the new term. Fifteen years ago, Turkey took a critical decision to liberalise its energy markets and successfully completed the transformation. While planning and an integrated approach are paramount for our private sector stakeholders, the government must provide the flexibility required by the changes needed by the market.”

Renewable energy, which is expected to grow over 400% and to amount to more than 50% of the total energy production increase, is another conspicuous subject in the scenario. Even though electricity is one of the energy types that will show a substantial increase, the experts expect that petrol and natural gas will continue to constitute more than half of the world energy.

According to the transformation scenario in progress, carbon emission levels will show a 10% increase until 2040 due to the increased demand and consumption of energy. BP Energy Outlook 2018 report also investigates another scenario of “Faster Transformation” where the carbon emission levels decrease 50% by the year 2040.

Mick Stump, President of BP Turkey commented: “The demand will continue to grow, and until 2040 the global energy demand will increase by one-third.”

Turkey, as one of the fastest growing 20 economies of the world, is at the focal point of the world’s attention with its natural gas projects, one of the most important energy sources of the future. Today, Turkey remains an energy country, with its Fuel Oil, Mineral Oil and Aviation operations on a global scale and big energy projects such as TANAP (Trans Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline) and BTC (Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline).