World Energy Scenarios
Project Partner: Paul Scherrer Institute
The WEC has initiated an open, inclusive and transparent process to derive a set of energy scenarios to 2050. These scenarios will enable policymakers and leaders in the energy field to gain a better understanding of the developments likely to be shaping the energy transformation to 2050.
“Scenarios are alternative images of how the future might unfold and are an appropriate tool with which to analyze how driving forces may influence future … outcomes and to assess the associated uncertainties.” – IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
Using the WEC’s distinctive approach and building on the in-depth knowledge of our extensive member network, we are able to develop two realistic scenario stories using an explorative, rather than the more commonly used normative, methodology.
Scenario 1:
Market-facilitated, consumer-driven, focus on achieving growth through low-cost energy
Scenario 2: Government-led, voter-driven, focus on energy security, national and regional measures to increase share of renewables in energy mix
These two stories are then quantified by our project partners, the Paul Scherrer Institute in Switzerland, using a Global Multi-Regional MARKAL (GMM) energy system model. This enables the WEC to project the specific implications of our two extreme scenarios. The approach was successfully tested with the publication of the Global Transport Scenarios 2050 report in 2011.
The impact of the WEC’s World Energy Scenarios will be felt globally, regionally, nationally and will inform the debate regarding the future energy landscape to 2050.
To ensure consistency and increase the power of its coherent approach, the WEC links the work on its World Energy Scenarios with its World Energy Trilemma study, and by using the insights gathered for its World Energy Resources and World Energy Perspectives.
“We use scenarios to explore possible developments in the future and to test our strategies against those potential developments.” – Royal Dutch Shell
Robert Whitney is the Executive Chair of the World Energy Scenarios flagship study.
Rob Whitney is Chairman of the World Energy Council’s New Zealand Member Committee, the Energy Federation of New Zealand and Executive Chair of the World Energy Scenarios flagship study. He is the Chief Executive of CRL Energy Ltd, an energy research, science and technology business owned by the coal industry. Rob Whitney is the former National President of the New Zealand Institute of Chemistry (NZIC). He has a BSc (Hons) degree in Industrial Chemistry and a PhD in Polymer Chemistry. He is a Rotary International Paul Harris Fellow, and Past President of the Rotary Club of Port Nicholson Wellington.
For further information, contact Dan Rieser, Deputy Director, Scenarios.
Email Dan Rieser
