Spain Member Committee

PEACE & STABILITY TOPS THE UNCERTAINTY SCALE, LEADING TO A GREATER FOCUS ON ENERGY SECURITY AND THE ECONOMY 

This year’s World Energy Issues Survey (conducted between 24 December 2025 and 12 January 2026), when compared with the previous edition, shows a greater perceived impact of Peace & Stability (geopolitical tensions, geoeconomic rivalries, and international fragmentation), which has moved to the top of the uncertainty scale, even before the recent escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, adding to the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Spain is relatively less vulnerable than other countries to potential energy supply disruptions, owing to its geographic position, diversified sourcing and supply origins, and robust infrastructure, including an extensive pipeline network, well-developed port terminals, substantial regasification capacity, and highly efficient and flexible refineries. However, over the longer term, concerns arise about risks linked to greater concentration among oil and gas suppliers, increased dependence on strategic technologies and critical minerals, and the potential weaponization of interdependence.

In economic terms, Spain is also vulnerable to the current geopolitical context. In 2024, 68.5% of final energy consumption came from imported fossil fuels, leaving the country highly exposed to international price fluctuations. However, in the power sector, this exposure to external shocks has been mitigated by the growing penetration of renewable energy, which accounted for 55% of the electricity generation mix in 2025, alongside nuclear at 19%. As a result, the wholesale market has become less dependent on international markets, with natural gas determining prices around 15% of the time in 2026, compared with around 75% in 2019.

In this edition, affordability has shifted slightly to the area of least impact, while the economic security block, which covers topics such as productivity growth, industrial upgrading, competitiveness, and employment, appears in the critical uncertainties area. Conducting an analysis and review of final consumer prices, as well as investing in tools that complement and invigorate the markets, are some of the aspects to be addressed to ensure that the transition serves as a real driver of those important issues.

Another key element within the high impact–high uncertainty area is the need to maintain a structural balance between electricity supply and demand. This challenge is particularly evident in the wholesale power market, where periods of zero or negative pricing have become increasingly frequent, reaching around 800 hours in 2025. This trend is expected to intensify if demand does not grow sufficiently or become more responsive to absorb the rapid expansion of renewable generation capacity.

POWER GRIDS REMAIN THE TOP PRIORITY, FOLLOWED BY STORAGE AND FLEXIBILITY. CLEAR AND STABLE REGULATION IS KEY.

Last year’s Spain Energy Issues Monitor already identified power grids as a priority area. Following the blackout of April 28, 2025, which affected Spain and Portugal, their importance in ensuring a safe and resilient power system has become a priority. It is now crucial that the lessons learned are implemented to further bolster operational resilience.

The data shows that investment in grid infrastructure has lagged behind investment in generation and appears insufficient to accommodate all new demand connections. There is a clear need to expand and modernize the grids, but also to make better use of existing assets, with regulatory adjustments that unlock capacity utilization and enable more flexible grid connections and usage.

Furthermore, the role of conventional generation (combined cycles and nuclear) has been highlighted as a source of backup and flexibility in a system with growing renewable penetration. The need to accelerate large-scale storage solutions and demand-side flexibility has become more prominent, underscoring the importance of having mechanisms in place to assess their contribution to the system.

Spain’s integration into the broader European energy network remains a significant challenge, requiring effective political coordination as well as close collaboration between the European Commission and system operators to develop new and cost-efficient cross-border interconnections.

Spain has been updating its 2025–2030 Electricity Transport Grid Development Plan (pending approval), its investment criteria for distribution grids, as well as their regulated economic remuneration. The country has also recently introduced several legislative developments (RD 997/2025, RDL 7/2026) with specific measures in this area, including, among others, voltage control services, robustness criteria for new demand connections, flexible access, and grid-unblocking measures.

The persistence this year of regulatory issues (such as permitting rules and transition incentives) in the upper-right corner shows the importance of having more predictability and clarity in regulatory processes and stable investment frameworks to ensure the system’s resilience, that investments are made on time, and that the system can cope with new demand developments. Permitting and clean investment rules (which emerged as significant agenda items for the first time last year) are of particular concern, showing that difficulties remain in the development of all types of projects due to administrative delays, legal proceedings, and growing public opposition, which are driving up costs and extending timelines.

ENERGY TRANSITION: AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A MORE COMPETITIVE, SECURE, AND SUSTAINABLE ECONOMY

The complex geopolitical context does not distance Spain from its transition process. On the contrary, it reinforces it. The country continues to advance its decarbonisation agenda by promoting energy efficiency, renewable energy sources (both electrons and molecules), electrification, and related technologies, with the conviction that this represents not only an opportunity to enhance sustainability, but also to strengthen strategic autonomy and reduce the country’s exposure to market price volatility.

Making the transition a real lever for competitiveness, industrialization, and employment in Spain requires, among other factors, strong public–private collaboration, the integration of capabilities across diverse actors and sectors, and a stable, clear, and predictable regulatory framework.

BLIND SPOT: THE SOCIAL CHALLENGE

Social issues (acceptance, participation, awareness, and education) are again placed in the low-impact zone in this edition. This is striking when reality proves these factors are, in fact, critically important. In particular, the lack of social acceptance for all types of projects—ranging from data centers and power lines to large-scale storage facilities, wind farms, or biogas plants—is becoming a problem of growing significance.

This highlights the need to improve communication and education around the energy transition, as well as to develop additional tools that enable citizens to perceive and experience its benefits.

NEW EMERGING TRADE-OFFS TO WATCH

Geopolitical disruptions should not divert focus from the challenges of balancing security, competitiveness, and sustainability, nor from the new trade-offs that are emerging. In an increasingly fragmented world, some key questions are:

• How can we strengthen our supply chains and autonomy while continuing to cooperate with other countries?
• How can the costs and benefits of the energy transition be properly distributed to truly secure social support?
• With the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C increasingly out of reach, how do we move forward in adapting society and our systems?

Acknowledgements
Spain Member Committee