Discussions focused on the question of potential next steps in New Zealand’s energy transition. New Zealand has a unique emissions profile. Agriculture, being approximately 50% of New Zealand’s GHG emissions, and transport, around 20%, are top of the agenda for New Zealand’s energy sector.
Their purpose is to help us think about what our energy future might look like, and the range of trade-offs and choices that may be needed to be made along the way, as New Zealand faces rapidly changing patterns of energy use, emerging disruptive technologies and, above all, the challenge of living sustainably.
Given the importance of the Council’s scenarios work and the fact that BEC is looking to leverage off them in their next BEC2060 Scenarios work, Christoph Menzel, former Scenarios Manager at the Council, updated BEC on key analysis behind the Council’s scenarios.
The report presents three exploratory scenarios—Modern Jazz, Unfinished Symphony, and Hard Rock—that provide users with a common language for thinking and talking about current events.
These scenarios provide energy leaders with an open, transparent, and inclusive framework to think about a very uncertain future, and thus assist in the shaping of the choices they make.
At the event Christoph shared key insights emerging from the World Energy Scenarios, particularly around the ‘hard rock’ scenario. He also reinforced the value of scenario-thinking for future decision making in the energy sector.
With a longer-term planning horizon, decision makers can better understand where and when new developments may emerge, and better plan future investments and required steps for regulators in a fast-moving world.
New Zealand’s energy experts actively engaged in the key issues for New Zealand’s energy future in the light of the new Council's scenarios, especially hard-rock.
In Hard Rock, market structures and policy systems increasingly fragment and focus on local and national needs.
Diversifying local economies and adapting to a new world with high geopolitical tensions become the primary focus. Security drivers and power-balancing alliances dominate global cooperation.