World Energy Scenarios

The practice of developing and using scenarios emerged as a way to give decision makers collaborative foresight that can underpin their strategy and policy in an uncertain world.

Scenarios use rigorous research and analysis to map out possible contrasting future worlds. They identify significant events, dominant actors, and their motivations; and they convey how those future worlds function. Scenarios are a tool that can help us to better understand what the future might look like and the likely challenges of living in it. Scenarios work in part because they force us to reflect on the assumptions we make about the world, address critical uncertainties, and widen our perspectives on what we need to consider in developing successful strategy and policy.

The three scenarios developed are Modern Jazz, which represents a ‘digitally disrupted,’ innovative, and market-driven world. Unfinished Symphony, a world in which more ‘intelligent’ and sustainable economic growth models emerge as the world drives to a low carbon future, and a more fragmented scenario called Hard Rock, which explores the consequences of weaker and unsustainable economic growth with inward-looking policies.

These scenarios allow energy decision makers to assess what is actually happening in the world now and gauge what will happen in the future including the impact of today’s choices on tomorrow’s energy landscape.

About the World Energy Scenario Stories

These scenarios provide energy leaders with an open, transparent, and inclusive framework to think about a very uncertain future, and thus assist in the shaping of the choices they make.

World Energy Scenarios at glance

Modern Jazz in 2060 is a world with a diverse set of resilient and lower-carbon energy systems. A highly complex and competitive market landscape drives efficiency, innovation, open access to information and rapid deployment of new technologies.

Unfinished Symphony by 2060, the world is “ticking on the same clock” and has shifted to a resilient, integrated, global low-carbon energy system. There is global unified action on security, environmental and economic issues, and global institutional and national governments support enabling technologies.

Hard Rock in 2060 is a fractured world, with a diverse set of economic, energy and sustainability outcomes. Nationalist interests prevent countries from collaborating effectively on a global level, with limited attention to addressing climate change. Technologies are mandated based on availability of local resources.

 

Latest Publications:

World Energy Insights Brief – Global Energy Scenarios Comparison Review

World Energy Insights Brief – Global Energy Scenarios Comparison Review Executive Summary