The report ‘Latin America &  the Caribbean (LAC) Energy Scenarios’ examines the future of the regional energy context to 2060. Three plausible, relevant and challenging regional scenarios are presented, which provide a clear and enabling framework for decision making under deep uncertainty and a platform to guide the development and consideration of more and better solutions to the challenges of robust energy transition and sustainable energy for all. This report is a first exploration of regional deep-dive scenarios and provides the basis and framework for the LAC region.

The framework which consists of Modern Jazz, Unfinished Symphony and Hard Rock, which have been developed for the report ‘World Energy Scenarios 2016: The Grand Transition‘, is used as a lens to test and explore how the key driving forces manifest and to investigate possible development trajectories for the LAC region, resulting into three scenarios: Samba, Tango and Rock.

 

The report is the product of a three-year process, which was developed by the very active involvement of the Council’s LAC National Member Committees and Project Partners – CAF (Development Bank of Latin America), Eletrobras and UPME (Mining and Energy Planning Unit, Ministry of Energy & Mining, Colombia). Feedback was also gathered at the World Energy Leaders’ Summit and workshops/conference calls around the region ensuring the inclusion of key insights from industry, governments, experts and civil societies. The Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) quantified the scenario storylines using its global multi-regional energy system model. The iteration between development of the narratives and the quantification provides the foundation for a set of scenarios.

Ged Davis, Executive Chair of Scenarios, World Energy Council, commented:

“It is clear that we are undergoing a Grand Transition, which is creating a fundamentally new world for the energy industry in Latin America and the Caribbean. We are seeing a fundamental change in geopolitics, lower population growth, and the impact of revolutionary technology. The scenarios demonstrate that the LAC region has great potential to benefit economically from regional integration and cooperation, but has been slow to reap the long-term benefits in the face of short-term political and economic priorities.”

Claudia Cronenbold, Vice Chair for Latin America and the Caribbean, World Energy Council, added:

“One of the main challenges we have is the investment needed to grow and develop the region. We need to attract investors and make sure there is the right balance between the business model and the consumer. Integration has the potential to help countries be more resilient and lower costs related to back-up infrastructure. The report is an important tool for the regions to share their initiatives and to see what would happen if the energy sector in the region were to take one road or another.”